Schools

Report: School District Enrollment Will Decrease Slightly

Projections show drop of about 6 percent, with no significant impact on building use.

Enrollment in Farmington schools should decrease a little more than 6 percent through 2021, according to a projection report presented to the Board of Education Monday night.

The report, solicited by the board and created by Peter Prowda, shows most of the Farmington schools staying fairly constant for the next decade, with East Farms Elementary School dropping by about 76 students by 2021 (from 465 to 389) and dipping to 370 in between. That’s good news for a school already using every available space - including hallways - for instruction.

“If we were seeing that East Farms would continue to increase, we would have to talk about redistricting,” Superintendent Kathleen Greider explained. “This tells us it would not be a good option because by that time East Farms will be at same level as capacity or even lower than capacity."

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A building’s capacity, that is how many students it can hold, is not a constant number, Greider said but depends on the programs in place within it. Adding programs, for example, would reduce the number of classrooms available for general use.

While the decline eases the concern about East Farms, it will likely not have a big impact on the budget. Board member Bill Beckert predicted the board would hear questions in 2012 about why its budget did not show a parallel decrease of 6 percent.

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“What’s difficult to explain is that students don’t leave grade levels in groups of 20 – it’s not like you can save a teacher just because enrollment has gone down across the district,” Greider said. “There are times when a decrease does give us a great opportunity to save on a teacher but it just depends on each year and where the students attend.”

The study looks at projections for future births, increase in town population, the number of women of childbearing age, sales of existing homes and new construction. It also assumes the district continues with half-day kindergarten and that there is a modest increase in magnet school enrollment, due to the increase of nearby magnet schools.

Board members noted the study does not take into account possible increase due to the addition of Jackson Laboratories by UConn Health Center.

The breakdown by school, from the Board of Education summary:

“K-4 enrollment will move downward from 1,459 in 2011 to about 1,320 students in 2018 and then rebound to about 1,375 students in 2021.

Union School will move from 306 in 2011 to 315 in 2021.

Noah Wallace School will range from 326 to 350 students over the next ten years and end the projection period with an enrollment slightly above the 2011 count of 341.

West District School will range from 332 to 367 students over the next ten years and end the projection period with an enrollment slightly above the 2011 count of 347.

Enrollment at the East Farms School will decline from 465 in 2011 to 389 in 2021. In between, it could hit a low of about 370 students.

Future enrollment at the West Woods Upper Elementary School will grow from 575 students in 2011 to 650 students in 2014 and then decline. The school’s enrollment will be 560 – 570 students in 2021.

Future enrollment in the Irving A. Robbins Middle School will vacillate as it moves from 652 students in 2011 to about 580 students in 2021.

Farmington High School’s enrollment of 1,291 students in October, 2011 will grow to about 1,320 students in October 2012 and then decline. By 2021, enrollment at Farmington High School will be about 1,210.”


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